The Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service’s Center for Economic and Policy Studies at the University of Virginia utilized the REMI PI+ model to estimate the effects of COVID-19, both economically and fiscally, for their study of the pandemic’s impact on the Commonwealth of Virginia and its localities. Their report estimated a “moderate” recessionary scenario and a “severe” recessionary scenario, which allows researchers to interpolate or extrapolate as more national macroeconomic information becomes available. The “moderate” scenario assumed the GDP growth declines at an annual rate of 2% in 2020 and the national economy “snaps back” slightly in 2021 and 2022 before resuming baseline growth of 2% for 2023-2025. The “severe” scenario, on the other hand, assumed the 2020 decline to be -6%, therefore making it the most significant economic downturn since World War II. The report also analyzed which industries are likely to be the most affected by social-distancing procedures.
