The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council prepared a preliminary analysis of COVID-19’s impact on the state of Florida and the Tampa Bay Area economy by implementing the REMI PI+ model to quantify the loss of spending activity and the indirect economic effects of that lost spending activity. The Council used the model in combination with the World Health Organization’s death rates by age data to forecast the loss of life from COVID-19 by simulating a change to population survival rates by age cohort in each of the Tampa Bay Area’s counties and the rest of the state in three “what if” scenarios. Their evaluation discovered that a contraction of the American economy of 10% and the increased mortality rate generates an 11.4% loss in Florida’s Gross Domestic Product and an 11.7% loss in the Tampa Bay Area.
