2022 State of the Commonwealth

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Each year the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy at Old Dominion University releases a State of the Commonwealth Report that reviews the Virginia economy and contributes to discussions about the future outlook for Virginia residents. The report seeks to tackle foreseen difficulties head-on and provide information that can be used to inform policy decisions to improve economic situations for all stakeholders.

Bob McNab and James Koch will discuss the state of Virginia’s economy, examining how defense appropriations, inflation, and increased interest rates impacted the Commonwealth in 2022 and the prospects for 2023. They will also explore the supply of lawyers in Virginia and whether the Commonwealth is producing too many lawyers and what the future may hold for the legal profession in Virginia and the nation. Dr. McNab and Dr. Koch will provide context for these issues and how they will impact Virginia residents.

Presenters:

Bob McNab
Chair of the Department of Economics and Director of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

Professor Robert M. McNab currently serves as the Chair of the Department of Economics and Director of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and in the Strome College of Business at Old Dominion University. He is a member of the Joint Advisory Board of Economists for the Commonwealth of Virginia, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters and is an Associate Editor with the Journal of Economic Surveys. Professor McNab has published in Applied Economics, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, Defense and Peace Economics, National Tax Journal, Public Budgeting and Finance, and World Development, among others. He edits the annual State of the Region: Hampton Roads and State of the Commonwealth reports Professor McNab has appeared in the Associated Press, China Global Television Network, CNN, Newsweek, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Yahoo News, Yahoo Finance, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Virginian Pilot, and Daily Press, among others. Dr. McNab joined the faculty of the Department of Economics in the Strome College of Business of Old Dominion University in July 2016 and previously was a member of the faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California from 2000 to 2016.

James Koch
Board of Visitors Professor of Economics Emeritus and President Emeritus at Old Dominion University

James V. Koch (“cook”) is Board of Visitors Professor of Economics Emeritus and President Emeritus at Old Dominion University.  Prior to becoming the President of Old Dominion, he served as President of University of Montana.  He was selected as one of the 100 most effective college presidents in the United States.

Dr. Koch is an economist.  A portion of his recent published economic research has focused on college costs and affordability and the special roles that Historically Black Colleges and Universities occupy in American higher education.  This work has appeared in books published by the Brookings Institution, the Johns Hopkins University Press, and the Columbia University Press.

But he is with us today because of his research concerning the incomes earned by America’s lawyers.  In short, and in contrast to what many individuals believe to be the case, he shows that the real, price-adjusted median income of a lawyer in the United States has declined since 2000.  But we will let him tell this story.  

Budget Forecasting Solutions with REMI

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This webinar was hosted by David Casazza, an Associate at REMI.

State and local government agencies need an intuitive and powerful dynamic impact model that can be used to analyze induced fiscal and economic effects of taxation. REMI Tax-PI is backed by years of dependability, and has been trusted nationally by many different government organizations as the only widely-available model that shows both the dynamic economic and fiscal effects of policy as a means to inform public policy.

In this webinar, REMI associate David Casazza will demonstrate how REMI Tax-PI has been used to shape and model state and local tax changes, state and local fiscal budgets, and education and infrastructure investments. We encourage anybody who has any questions about our tax modeling capabilities to attend, as there will be time at the end of the presentation for Mr. Casazza to answer your questions.

The Community Economic Effects of New Distribution Centers: How We Used REMI

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Distribution centers, or fulfillment centers, are a crucial piece of the overall economy, and this has become increasingly true as online commerce continues to grow. More distribution centers have become necessary to meet the increase in demand caused by Covid-19 and related online shopping trends. Still, some critics believe that these centers are harmful to local economies. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce conducted an analysis of the direct and indirect regional economic impacts of distribution centers to test this claim.

In this webinar, Mr. Dubay will discuss how these distribution centers affect Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) through direct job creation and the associated ripple effect in communities. Mr. Dubay will use case studies and the REMI model as the backbone of his analysis.

 

Speaker:
Curtis Dubay
Chief Economist
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Curtis Dubay is the Chief Economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He tracks the condition of the economy, analyzes the impact of public policy on economic growth, and runs the Chamber’s Chief Economists Committee. Previously, he was senior economist at the American Bankers Association and a research fellow in tax and economic policy at The Heritage Foundation. He  also worked at the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and at the Tax Foundation.

Dubay has researched and published frequently on a wide range of tax and economic issues. He is regularly quoted by the press and has appeared often in the media, including on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, and C-SPAN. He has testified before Congress several times and been cited in newspapers such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, and Politico.

Dubay received his master’s degree in economics from the University of Connecticut and his bachelor’s degree in economics and leadership studies from the University of Richmond. He resides in Washington, D.C., with his wife and three sons.

Resilience in Supply Chain Transportation Networks: Economic Impact and Case of California

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System resilience has come center-stage since the COVID-19 disruptions to international supply chains; but the capacity to recover quickly from crises is just as important for regional economies as it is to global networks. Metropolitan and state transportation networks are especially susceptible to systemic or random events that can decrease their performance and leave lasting impacts on their economic and social wellbeing. More now than ever, the study of resilience and its intersection with risk, efficiency, and security is of paramount importance for increasingly complex systems to function.

In this webinar, Mr. Linkov of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will discuss his research into the cascading socioeconomic effects of disruptions to transportation networks. He will also outline methodological solutions developed for the California Transportation Commission, using case studies and REMI TranSight modeling as the backbone of his analysis.

 

Speaker:
Igor Linkov
Senior Science and Technology Manager
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)

Dr. Igor Linkov is Senior Science and Technology Manager with the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and Adjunct Professor with Carnegie Mellon University.  He is responsible for a large project portfolio in the areas of crises management, supply chain and resilience.  He develops methods and tools for measuring resilience in interconnected network, including supply chains, and applies these tools to critical infrastructure, transportation, energy and cyber systems, and currently to manage response and recovery following COVID pandemic.   He was part of several Interagency Committees and Working Groups tasked with developing resilience metrics and resilience management approaches, including chairing committee on Supply Chain Resilience for the US Transportation Research Board.  He has organized more than thirty national and international conferences and continuing education workshops, including over twenty NATO events, on climate change, resilience and complex systems management.  He has published widely on environmental and technology policy, climate change, and risk and resilience analytics, including twenty five books and over 400 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters in top journals, like Nature, Nature Nanotechnology, Nature Climate Change, among others.  Dr. Linkov is Elected Fellow with the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and Society for Risk Analysis and received multiple awards for his scientific achievements from the Army and other organizations.

Economic Impacts – Energy Supply and Demand for Deep Decarbonization

 

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This presentation examined the technical challenges and one possible technological pathway toward significantly decarbonizing the U.S. economy by 2050. As researched by MIT and modeled by FTI Consulting and its economic impacts group, the study finds there would be profound regional differences in the impacts on the energy sector and the economy no matter the specific technological pathway taken.

 

Scott Nystrom
FTI Consulting

Scott Nystrom is an expert in macroeconomic, regional, and energy system modeling and applying them to policy analysis and economic impacts and other types of modeling and economic analysis. As the co-lead of the firm’s North American economic impacts group, he uses models such as REMI, IMPLAN, and GTAP daily to model the impacts of legislation, litigation, regulation, and policy on the economy, as measured by metrics like job growth, GDP, and tax collections. His work on economic impact analysis has covered every sector of the economy, including agriculture, natural resources, construction, utilities, manufacturers, logistics, healthcare, and services. 

For the past 11 years, Mr. Nystrom has conducted studies related to climate policy, demographics, economic development, energy, fiscal policy, healthcare, international trade, labor, scope emissions, and transportation policy. Clients have included federal and state government agencies, non-profits and foundations, trade associations, utilities, corporations, and law firms. He was the technical expert on a multibillion-dollar dispute involving default on sovereign debt and the accuracy of the statistics produced by a national statistics office. Since early 2017, Mr. Nystrom has been the de facto chief macroeconomist and policy analyst for the state of North Dakota, which has involved assessing the economic impacts of tax credits, tax reforms, and large private investments. 

Mr. Nystrom’s experience leads him to regularly present to federal and state policymakers. Highlights include presenting his findings to members of Congress on the economic contribution of electric cooperatives; Capitol Hill briefings on federal climate policy; and the impacts of tax incentives and economic development grants to budget committees. These include the legislatures of Arkansas, Massachusetts, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 

Prior to FTI Consulting, Mr. Nystrom worked at Regional Economic Models, Inc. (“REMI”), a firm that specializes in building models of state and regional economies. While at REMI, he was the head of consulting engagements, client training and support, and the Washington, DC office. He has extensive experience with impact models as well as energy system models such as CTAM and the Power System Optimizer (“PSO”) and using them in concert and parallel with one another.