Forecast Updates
Instructions
To use these Forecast Updates do the following:
- Download the update file
- Create a New National Control
- On the Select Inputs screen click the Macroeconomic Values tile
- Click the Import button under the File Tools group in the menu
- Select the file you previously downloaded and click OK. You will then be given an option to rename the assumption file if you want to.
- Select the assumption that was just added and click on the checkbox on the assumption card so that it is green.
- Click OK to use the assumption with this new National Control
- Run the new National Control and use it for future forecasts.
RSQE May Update – v.2.5 Models
This macroeconomic update of the national forecast for v2.5 models is based on The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2021-2023 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) release on May 21, 2021, The Long-Term Economic Projections from CBO (supplementing CBO’s March 2021 report The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook), and updated BEA data for 2020 (revised on May 27, 2021).
Download the RSQE May Macroeconomic Update – v.2.5 Models
RSQE May Update
This macroeconomic update of the short-term national forecast is based on the U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) release on May 18, 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves rapidly and shelter-in-place orders have been implemented extensively in the U.S., the slowdown in production and the decline in demand are exacerbated. Real GDP decreased 5% in the first quarter of 2020 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Unemployment rate reached 14.7% in April 2020 according the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, economic policy responses from the Federal Reserve and the stimulus bills have taken place to battle the harmful effects of the pandemic. This update assumes that the economic contraction is severe and the swift and aggressive policy responses to the pandemic maintains the possibility of a partial snapback in later 2020 and a slow recovery from then on. In addition, this forecast update is based the assumption that social distancing and other precautions will continue into 2021 and there will not be a surge of new COVID-19 cases as the economy gradually reopens.
Download the RSQE May Macroeconomic Update
RSQE August & CBO September Macroeconomic Update
This macroeconomic update of the national forecast is based on three data sources: The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) released on August 24, 2020; An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from CBO released on July 2, 2020; and An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from CBO released on September 2, 2020.
Download the RSQE August & September CBO Macroeconomic Update
RSQE November & CBO September Macroeconomic Update
This macroeconomic update of the national forecast is based on three data sources: The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) release on November 19, 2020; An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from CBO released on July 2, 2020; and an Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from CBO released on September 2, 2020.
Download the RSQE November & September CBO Macroeconomic Update
March Economic Forecast Update (only for v2.4 models)
This update of the national forecast is based on the 2019-2020 historical data from BEA released on January 28, 2021, The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) released on February 19, 2021, and The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 from CBO released in January and February 2021.