REMI’s 2018 Events Tackle New Tax Law and Other Key Topics

As national and state leaders face fresh policy challenges in the new year, REMI’s staff and clients will be at the forefront of providing dynamic economic analysis that answers the critical questions.

We are offering luncheons and webinars in the coming months on the state and local effects of the new federal tax overhaul, as well as other timely topics.

For more information about upcoming events, please visit our events page. We hope you can join us in 2018!

Evaluating Cap-and-Trade: An Oregon Example

Oregon lawmakers are debating ways to reduce greenhouse gases, and analysis by FTI Consulting, Inc. using the REMI model has shaped the discussion.

In March, FTI’s Economic Impacts Group released a study for the Associated Oregon Industries Research and Education Foundation assessing SB 1574 (2016), a cap-and-trade bill representative of several others under consideration in the state.

The proposal called for monetizing emissions by assigning costs, and would have paved the way for integrating an Oregon market for carbon allowances with California’s larger cap-and-trade market. FTI’s study, titled “Oregon Cap-and-Trade — An Analysis of the Economic Impacts of Oregon SB 1574 (2016)”, was honored in October at the REMI Users’ Conference with a George I. Treyz Award for excellence in analysis in the category of energy, economy and the environment.

You can view the full report here. One of the authors, Scott Nystrom, discussed this subject for a REMI guest webinar – you can view the recording of the webinar and the slides in our archives.

Mr. Nystrom along with co-authors Ken Ditzel and Evan Klein evaluated potential effects using three tools in concert: PLEXOS, an electric sector model; CTAM, an emissions model customized for Oregon; and REMI PI+, our leading model for simulating the total economic effects for policy changes. The authors found that the plan would result in lost economic growth (compared to the baseline) of $1.3 billion in 2035 and $4.5 billion in 2050.

While the specific proposal was not passed in 2016 or this year, the analysis is helping inform ongoing discussions about emission reduction policies.

Building Gated Cities: Economic Effects of Housing Limits

Colorado’s rapid growth has inspired local elected officials and residents to consider initiatives to limit permits for new home construction.

REMI hosted a guest webinar with Chris Brown, Director of Policy and Research at the Common Sense Policy Roundtable. You can view a recording of the presentation in our archives.

Through a partnership among Common Sense Policy Roundtable, the Colorado Association of Realtors, Colorado Concern and Denver South Economic Development Partnership, Mr. Brown authored a report that looked at the economic and fiscal effects of restricting housing growth in the city of Lakewood, Colorado.

In addition to Lakewood, supporters of limiting growth in Colorado have proposed a statewide ballot measure that would restrict housing development across 10 Front Range counties.

Mr. Brown found that the Lakewood proposal offered by policy makers to cap Lakewood housing growth created a risk of unintended consequences in an attempt to decrease regional congestion and increase quality of life. The partnership is also assessing the potential impacts of the statewide measure, which could appear on the ballot next year.

For the webinar, Mr. Brown discussed how he used REMI’s dynamic economic modeling to evaluate the potential impacts of housing growth regulations.

You can view Mr. Brown’s report on the Lakewood proposal here.

Jobs and Trade: Effects of US-Alberta Commerce

The effects of trade policy can vary significantly from one region to another, and from one industry to another – so understanding the localized impacts is critical.

Laura Adkins-Hackett, a senior economic research analyst with the Government of Alberta, gave a talk at the REMI Users’ Conference in October exploring the vital relationship between the Canadian province and the U.S. REMI is offering a guest webinar presented by her on Wednesday, December 20th from 2 to 3 p.m. EST.

The U.S. is seeking to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with its partners, Canada and Mexico. Any revisions to the agreement could have major ramifications for regions or industries that are especially reliant on cross-border commerce.

Nearly 90 percent of Alberta’s merchandise exports go to the U.S., and up to 70 percent of the province’s merchandise imports come from the U.S. In 2015, one out of five jobs in Alberta was in an export-reliant industry.

You can view Ms. Adkins-Hackett’s presentation here and find more information about the webinar by clicking here.

NAFTA and Its Effect on the Canadian Dollar

If the North American Free Trade Agreement continues on as currently constructed, the Canadian dollar could be in for a meaningful decline. Analysts have begun considerations and calculations on potential scenarios that might coincide with these NAFTA negotiations.

The uncertainty centers around the deteriorating relationship between Mexico and the United States, leaving Canada as almost a third-party bystander to the eventual outcome that will affect all parties considerably. A public breakdown of NAFTA could hinder the business and overall partnerships between all three countries as each would have to locate new places and allies in order to stabilize and re-evaluate their respective economy.

The article states, “And Canada would bear the brunt of that uncertainty from an export perspective. According to research by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, Michigan and Vermont are the only U.S. states where trade with Canada exceeds 10 per cent of their annual economic output. Compare that with Canadian provinces like Ontario where 49 per cent of its GDP depends on trade within the U.S., Alberta, where it’s 31 per cent and Quebec where the U.S. makes up 23 per cent of the province’s GDP.”

Please join us on Wednesday, December 20th from 2 to 3 p.m. EST when Laura Adkins-Hackett will be providing further critical information and analysis on the importance of trade between the U.S. and the Canadian province of Alberta.

For more on the effect of NAFTA negotiations on the Canadian dollar, please read this article from Yahoo! Finance.