Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Quarterly Brief: Q3 2021

 

36th Annual REMI Users’ Conference

Last week, REMI had the pleasure of hosting the 2021 Annual Users’ Conference, “Progress and Prosperity: Guiding Policy through Uncharted Waters” in St. Pete Beach, Florida! During the conference, speakers shared their insights on various vital subjects, from energy and resiliency to infrastructure and regional economic development. For your information, you can find all of the presentations by clicking here.

We appreciate our clients’ interest in our event and look forward to seeing you next year in the conference location selected by the 2021 conference attendees, Memphis, Tennessee! We are already planning for what we anticipate will be another exciting event! Stay tuned for details about next year’s conference.

 

Client Spotlight:
Luis Nieves-Ruiz, East Central Florida Regional Planning Council

Luis Nieves-Ruiz serves as Economic Development Manager for the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, a council of governments located in Orlando, Florida. Luis’s areas of expertise include economic impact analysis, health, and regional food systems planning, and industry cluster analysis.

His professional and volunteer work has been recognized by Big Brothers Big Sisters of Central Florida, the Wallace Center at Winrock International, NADO, ULI, Toastmasters International, Next City, and Leadership Florida. Mr. Nieves-Ruiz holds a Master’s Degree in Regional Planning from Cornell University and is a member of the American Institute of Certified Planners.

At REMI’s 36th Annual Users’ Conference, Luis presented “Assessing the Economic Value of Recreational Assets”. The presentation uses REMI PI+ to estimate the value of recreation assets and leisure activities. The discussion concludes with an overview of best practices when developing simulation variables and assumptions. You can learn more about Luis’ presentation by clicking here.

Pictured: REMI PI+ model esimations of employment contributions of the Wekiva River System by industry

 

REMI SEI:
Analyzing Policy and Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI)

REMI SEI is the premium modeling solution for evaluating the socioeconomic indicators (SEI) of projects, programs, and policy changes. Decision-makers employ REMI SEI to understand the relationship between public policies in their industry and the varying economic effects across demographic groups.

REMI SEI provides insight into the relationship between
public policy and the varying economic effects across populations including:
– Jobs by Race/Gender
– Regional Disparities by County
– Labor Force by Race/Gender
– Jobs by Education Level
– Income by Quintile
– Inflation Impact by Income

This premium component can be added to any REMI model to fortify your SEI analysis on your local, state, regional, or national economy. Please click here to learn more about REMI SEI capabilities and the benefits of using REMI’s economic modeling software.

The industries of economic development that rely on dynamic socioeconomic analysis to influence their policies and practices include:
– Housing and Community Development
– Taxation
– Energy and Environment
– Immigration
– Healthcare and Social Services
– Transportation
– Labor and Workforce Development
– Consulting Firms

 

Notable REMI SEI Presentations

Understanding Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI) and their Implications for BRAC
Infrastructure and Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI)
Guiding Policy through Economic Modeling:
Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI) and Regional Development

 

Understanding the Reality of the Net-Zero Emmissions Objective

Nationwide efforts to thwart negative climate impacts motivate the reduction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net-zero around mid-century. Given the urgency of the matter, a wide variety of countries have agreed to limit warming below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) describes net-zero as reducing the GHG emissions that cause global warming to zero by balancing the amount released into the atmosphere from sources with the amount removed and stored by carbon sinks. This reduced emissions outcome may also be described as carbon neutrality and sometimes climate neutrality.

World Resources Institute claims the first call to action should be to reduce human-caused emissions (such as those from fossil-fueled vehicles and factories) as close to zero as possible. For example, switching from fossil fuels to renewables, including wind and solar power, to generate electricity is significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions in many countries. Once human-caused emissions are reduced, carbon removal, which can happen by restoring forests or using direct air capture and storage technology, will diminish all remaining GHG emissions.

Countries and corporations around the globe are promoting their climate credentials by pledging to achieve net-zero emissions or become carbon neutral in the next few decades. Unfortunately, most of these pledges seldom live up to their promises due to complications of the unknowing repercussion of the current technology. Research from the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets shows less than 5% of offsets remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Lancaster University’s Duncan McLaren, Ph.D. analyzes the current concerns of net-zero promises. Professor McLaren suggests combining emissions reductions and harmful emissions into a single target of reaching “net-zero” may create problems. These problems could include delayed emissions cuts but also insufficient focus on developing negative emissions technologies. However, most negative emissions technologies are still only prospective technologies and do not exist as large-scale sociotechnical systems ready for deployment. While strategies for reducing emissions are researched, achieving such ambitious strides to become net-zero emission may prove difficult to accomplish. There are industry professionals, such as Professor McLaren, investigating the precise details of cutting emissions.

During the 2021 Annual REMI User’ Conference, Stanley McMillen, Ph.D., Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics and Consultant at the University of Connecticut, discussed the economic and fiscal impacts of Connecticut’s greenhouse gas reduction strategies.
You can access his full presentation here.

 

Staff Spotlight:
Guyesha Blackshear, Analyst – Business Development

Guyesha Blackshear is a Business Development Analyst at Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI). She ensures REMI users are able to effectively incorporate the REMI model into their organizations and support their economic modeling needs. Prior to coming to REMI, Ms. Blackshear worked as a research assistant for a law firm and lobbying group. Guyesha also served as an Implementation Consultant for a technology consulting firm where she performed data analysis and UX research.

Since joining the REMI team, Guyesha has spoken at multiple conferences on behalf of REMI, meets with current and prospective clients across the country, and works regularly with senior staff to improve our economic modeling practices and methodology.

Guyesha earned her Master’s in Economics at Georgia State University and her Bachelor’s in Economics from Spellman College.

 

What’s Next at REMI?

Guiding Policy through Economic Modeling:
Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI) and Regional Development

On Tuesday, November 2nd, from 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. (ET), we will be hosting “Guiding Policy through Economic Modeling: Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI) and Regional Development.” This discussion will provide an overview of “Using Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI) in Regional Economic Modeling,” a study that presents the methodology and sample applications for standardized socioeconomic indicators (SEI) that provide metrics for understanding the distributional impacts of public policies.
Register Here!

D.C. Luncheon

REMI will be hosting our monthly luncheon on Thursday, November 16, 2021, from 11am to 1pm (ET) at Metro Center, 700 12th Street, NW, Suite 700, Washington D.C. 20005. We look forward to offering this event free of charge; however, we do ask that you register in advance.
Register Here!

REMI Special Session:
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in Regional Economic Development

REMI will be hosting a special session and sponsoring the 68th North American Meeting of the Regional Science Association hosted by NARSC, an international Regional Science organization that promotes the exchange of knowledge, theory, and analysis of regions across the globe. Our session focuses on the socioeconomic implications of regional structures, policies, and futures.
Learn More!

Stay Connected with REMI

 

The Reality of the Net-Zero Emission Objective

Nationwide efforts to thwart negative climate impacts motivate the reduction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net-zero around mid-century. Given the urgency of the matter, a wide variety of countries have agreed to limit warming below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) describes net-zero as reducing the GHG emissions that cause global warming to zero by balancing the amount released into the atmosphere from sources with the amount removed and stored by carbon sinks. This reduced emissions outcome may also be described as carbon neutrality and sometimes climate neutrality.

World Resources Institute claims the first call to action should be to reduce human-caused emissions (such as those from fossil-fueled vehicles and factories) as close to zero as possible. For example, switching from fossil fuels to renewables, including wind and solar power, to generate electricity is significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions in many countries. Once human-caused emissions are reduced, carbon removal, which can happen by restoring forests or using direct air capture and storage technology, will diminish all remaining GHG emissions.

Countries and corporations around the globe are promoting their climate credentials by pledging to achieve net-zero emissions or become carbon neutral in the next few decades. Unfortunately, most of these pledges seldom live up to their promises due to complications of the unknowing repercussion of the current technology. Research from the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets shows less than 5% of offsets remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Lancaster University’s Duncan McLaren analyzes the current concerns of net-zero promises. Professor McLaren suggests combining emissions reductions and harmful emissions into a single target of reaching “net-zero” may create problems. These problems could include delayed emissions cuts but also insufficient focus on developing negative emissions technologies. However, most negative emissions technologies are still only prospective technologies and do not exist as large-scale sociotechnical systems ready for deployment.

While strategies for reducing emissions are researched, achieving such ambitious strides to become net-zero emission may prove difficult to accomplish. There are industry professionals, such as Professor McLaren, investigating the precise details of cutting emissions.

During the 2021 Annual REMI User’ Conference, Stanley McMillen, Ph.D., Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics and Consultant at the University of Connecticut, discussed the economic and fiscal impacts of Connecticut’s greenhouse gas reduction strategies. You can view Dr. McMillen’s full presentation by clicking here.

To learn more about the effects of GHG and learn how to reach net-zero carbon, click hereto read The London School of Economics and Political Science. You can also gain more insights from the World Resources Institute by clicking here.

Click here to read more about the possible negative outcome of attempting net-zero emissions from Taskforce and Kristina Partsinevelos from CNBC.

To learn more from Professor Duncan McLaren, click here on the problem with net-zero emissions targets.

How COVID-19 Impacted Tourism in the United States

Many states, including Hawaii, Florida, Nevada, and many others, have highlighted tourism as a prominent economic driver. With tourism as the fundamental contributor to these regional economies, many state economies have struggled to prosper with tourism revenue being less consistent due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The global health and safety concerns led to substantial job losses in the tourism-related sectors, leaving businesses to shut down or operate at a lower capacity. In addition, travel restrictions and nationwide shutdowns greatly impacted the lifestyles and livelihoods of communities in these states and under similar conditions.

All tourism-driven economies were affected by the pandemic differently, and there was crucial impact variation across multiple regions. For instance, Hawaii was challenged and continues to suffer from the impacts of inadequate international travel. Tourism from Asia has declined drastically because of travel restrictions. This issue has impacted Hawaii’s economic recovery post-pandemic, as their tourism and revenue estimations are significantly lower compared to pre-COVID rates. Hawaii also experienced labor force changes in the form of job loss early in the pandemic, and this obstacle has remained. In fact, tourism-related businesses currently have labor shortages equivalent to rates during the pandemic. There are essential factors for labor shortages in Hawaii, such as increased automation to withhold short-staffed companies. Child care shortages also present obstacles for people rejoining the labor force, and the high costs of living in the state also make it burdensome for lower-wage workers to recover from the pandemic. These cascading impacts have created severe economic implications for the state.

REMI has recently hosted a webinar discussion, “The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Reimagining Tourism,” that evaluates the necessary criteria for reinstating tourism as a regular economic activity in the U.S. compared against our current trajectory. To view the slides and recording of this presentation, click here.

For more about how Hawaii is recovering from COVID, click here. You can also become informed on the continued job loss in the state by clicking here.

How COVID-19 Relief Continued to Support Higher Education

The U.S. has disbursed trillions to assist Americans in withstanding the negative impacts of COVID-19. Within this relief aid, America has allocated upwards of $1.59 trillion in student debt during this irregular time. Countless graduates crippled by overwhelming student debt coupled with academic institutions struggling post-pandemic have led Congress to increase emergency funding for the education system. The funding targets suffering universities and graduates who will go on to join the 21st-century labor force. This budget package is one of the numerous programs implemented to support higher education, totaling $85 billion as of August 2021.

In early 2020, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, commonly known as the CARES Act, was passed by Congress to soften the anticipated burden on the economy. Within this $2.2 trillion bill, approximately $14 billion was designated to the Office of Postsecondary Education in the form of the Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund (HEERF). In May, the Education Department designated $36 billion to more than 5,000 colleges and universities with the aim of bolstering schools that serve students and families hit hardest by the pandemic. Under the HEERF, an additional $3.2 billion was delegated to support students and provide resources to help institutions recover from the impacts of the pandemic in July of 2021. Of these funds, $2.97 billion provide aid to Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Tribally Controlled Colleges and Universities, and other minority-serving institutions.

REMI recently held a webinar discussion, “Universities’ Economic and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Impacts,” that explores how continued support of academic institutions and their consequent contributions to the broad-based prosperity of their regional economies can be measured through economic modeling. REMI-SEI quantifies how universities are building a more diverse workforce and equitable future. You can learn more about this presentation by clicking here.

Congress has also dispersed loan relief extensions, in addition to cancellations, of student loan debt. In August 2021, the Biden administration bolstered this commitment by extending the student loan payments grace period through January 31, 2022. This extension offers many students a much-needed suspension on paying their federal student loans without penalties or added interest. In August, Congress also canceled an additional $5.8 billion of student loans to graduates whose permanent disability prevents them from earning income.

As a result of this federal funding, students, graduates, and collegiate institutions are getting the government assistance they need. The potential need for continued federal support has been recognized by Congress and is being assessed to help those in need of immediate assistance, furthering allowing the higher education system to prosper during the pandemic.

To learn more about the CARES act, please click here. You can also click here to learn more about the $36 billion that was received from the U.S. Department of Education.

To find out more about the $3.2 billion under the Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund (HEERF), click here.

Additional information regarding the $8.7 billion canceled student loans debt can be accessed by clicking here.

The Transformation of Energy Sourcing

The world has globally recognized the need to support energy and environmental initiatives to ensure a sustainable and prosperous future. A promising method for sustainability has arisen: make vital reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. 

The world has taken the initiative to reduce emissions and make use of alternative energy sources. While this global shift to cleaner energy consumption benefits the environment, many communities that rely on coal as their primary energy source are suffering from the implications of this economic transition.  

The potential for economic growth is a motivating factor for regional governments to find more sustainable and renewable energy sources instead of coal and another nonrenewable. Rising benefits of clean energy usage and the increased costs of coal production, the coal industry is less profitable than it has ever been.  

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute speculates that “the changing economics of energy generation and the industry’s move toward automation have caused shocks to the coal workforce.” The Institute goes on to confirm that “2019 saw the second-highest number of coal-fired power plant closures and coal mining employment in the United States declined by 39 percent between 2009 and 2016”. With the labor force struggling to recover post-pandemic and coal profitability shrinking, regions whose revenues are heavily dependent on coal are suffering. Although the coal industry is losing value, there are still possible solutions that maintain regional growth and foster economic profitability. 

In our recent webinar discussion, “Shifts in the Energy Industry: An Analysis of Energy Impacts on State Economies,” REMI experts consider how a coal-dependent community will be impacted by the shifts to gas and solar energy. This presentation also analyzes the shifts in state taxation, energy prices, and other related economic variables due to renewable energy innovations before forecasting how state economies are impacted as the energy industry continues to transition away from fossil fuels using the REMI economic model. To learn more about this discussion and view the full presentation of this webinar, please click here. 

The learn more about The Environmental and Energy Study Institute, click here.