September 16, 2008

Seeking Economic Sustainability: The Economic and Demographic Outlook for Michigan and Its Counties to 2035



The Institute for research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy at the University of Michigan used the REMI model to complete their forecasts for the Michigan Department of Transportation and this report summarized the procedures and broad results fro the most current outlook at the time. The forecasts were very detailed and were provided for each year through 2010 and in five-year intervals from 2010 through 2035 for population, employment, personal income, and households. The REMI model used in this study was an eighty-three county version, and the forecasts for each county were summed to the state forecast totals, with the model accounting for trade flows among the counties in the process. Employment was forecasted to continue to shrink, by 0.24 percent per year, from 2005 to 2010, but by 2010 employment was forecasted to rebound, growing more rapidly through 2015 and more slowly thereafter. This path translated into modest growth of 0.26 percent per year from 2010 to 2035, exceeding its 2000 peak employment level by 2022.

University of Michigan – Seeking Economic Sustainability: The Economic and Demographic Outlook for Michigan and Its Counties to 2035 [full PDF]