The Bureau of Economic and Business Research prepared this study for the Public Lands Policy Coordination Office applying the REMI model to develop economic impacts under three long-run trend scenarios for oil and gas production for the Uinta Basin and the State of Utah. These long-term simulations abstracted from short-term business or resource cycle fluctuations and instead identified the long-term trends as impacts on employment, personal income, earnings, population, local government revenues, and state government revenues were calculated out to 2038. The three long-run trend scenarios were the reference case, low-growth, and high-growth. The low-growth scenario would support Uinta Basin population growth of 19,658, the reference case would support growth of 25,834, and the high-growth case would support an additional 17,015 people. Assuming steady production, the low-growth case would grow statewide population by 32,665, the reference case would support growth of 47,622, and the high-growth case would support an additional 28,035 people in Utah.
